Capital Discussions - Road Trip Trade Alerts. Dan Harvey shows how he does probability analysis for options trades. Dan shows the high expected return of the Road Trip Trade. Try it yourself at http: //option- risk. Frequently Asked Questions.

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What's the difference between the SPX and ES trades? There are normally two trades per month for the SPX index options and two per month for ES futures options.

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ES futures options use SPAN margin, which means you get risk- based margin without a $1. ES futures can be traded against the both SPX and ES positions.

The ES futures options positions are traded as the original Road Trip Trade was designed. There is no layering of other trades except Reverse Harvey adjustments. The ES positions require fewer adjustments during the life of each trade. Do you provide trade details so we can follow along in our own option analysis software? Yes. We have a tab with all open positions and open orders. Here's what it looks like: The open positions show the current positions, Dan's optional hedges in the notes, and the adjustment history so you can see when Dan did each adjustment and what he did.

What is the margin required for one trade? Each SPX butterfly typically requires approximately $1. We recommend having a buffer and using approximately $1. Because we can have five simultaneous trades on, a rule of thumb some traders use is one butterfly every two weeks for every $1.

1. Dan Harvey and Tom Nunamaker's Road Trip Trade Alerts The Road Trip Trade is easy to manage with few adjustments and a good expectancy. Suitable for traders with a.
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So a $3. 0,0. 00 account would put on a three lot every two weeks. Alternatively, you could use twice as many contracts every four weeks. ES futures options require less margin.

Typically about 1/3rd of the Reg. T margin, or maximum risk for a position.

If the market moves against the position, margin will increase so it is wise to keep 5. How much should I expect to make? Watch From Prada To Nada Online Forbes. The Road Trip Trade (RTT) (and other butterflies) are Forest Gump "Life is like a box of chocolates" trades. Your yields will normally vary from 5% to 1. Dan's highest was 2. Because we have multiple trades open at the same time, the yield on the entire account is lower than the yield on any individual trade.

Our performance shows returns on the entire account. Other services show returns per trade and some assume you are using 1. Our Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is generally around +2.

This is also the return we have seen for client accounts Dan and Tom are trading but there is no guarantee of future returns. Should position deltas be long or short? What about the negative vega. What about the risk? The position deltas and gamma will always be OK at trade launch; otherwise, we would not have selected the trade.

The actual option Greeks will vary according to your platform. Vega will always be negative and manageable. Trade risk is inevitable. The RTT behaves very well in nearly all markets and is very resilient to downside moves. Before he joined Capital Discussions, Dan Harvey received many emails from traders who were very pleased (some said "Amazed") with the performance of the RTT.

They were especially impressed how it handles a moderate downside move with minimal damage and good recovery potential. However, a huge downside move may cause us to exit the trade to avoid a large loss.

Any income trade is subject to being hurt by three or four standard deviation moves, and the RTT is no exception. We are very risk- averse, and we do our best to manage impending risk. Can I get filled at your trade alert filled prices? Some traders will get the same fills we do or even better. Others may not. Here is our sequence for selecting the trade. First, we experiment with two to four combinations of strikes which we think would have excellent returns with manageable risk. Then, we watch the mid prices of these possible trades and how the prices move with the market.

Then, we select the one we think is the best (and with a reasonable price) and send a "working order" alert. If the order is filled, we copy and paste the fill and send it as an alert as soon as we can. This is usually within 5 minutes of the fill. The key point: GET FILLED. The only scenario in which you might want to pass is one in which you can't get filled even at a dime or 1. Yes, you will give a little to the market maker, but these trades have a high win rate, excellent expectancy, and some of the best yields we have experienced when taken in context with the simplicity of the strategy, its low draw downs, and its relatively few adjustments. RTT is low maintenance, suitable for those with a busy schedule or in a non- US time zone (I am based in the south of Spain), you don't have to spend your life in front of the screens (although I do keep an eye on the markets throughout the US session).

Thanks for showing this strategy and for your efficient service!". Rod S. - Gibraltar. Are you front running the trades? No. Some trade alerts send out messages after they are filled, Dan posts his working orders (W.

O.) in real time. As soon as Dan places and order, he sends an email and SMS text alert out within seconds. Dan has the same chances of getting filled that you do.

Do I have enough time at the end of the day to get filled? Yes. Some trade alerts send alerts out at the end of the day so it's nearly impossible for you to follow and get the same fills. Dan never does that. Dan is normally done trading for the day within 2 to 2- 1/2 hours after the market opens.

The only exception is if the markets have a major move down. I'd like to know more about how you approach the position sizing and risk relative to allocated capital for this strategy. For example, how are you determining the realistic worst case scenario. Are you looking at an expected worst case based vs. Both Dan and Tom are very risk- averse. Between them, they have more than 3. They routinely look at two standard deviations (SD) as a move with a "reasonable" likelihood, and they adjust and hedge accordingly.

If you haven't watched some of their videos, please do so to get a feel of how they approach risk. If the market moves more than two standard deviations, then we consider that we are in a new "data set".

Basically, we don't like to make more than one hedging adjustment (usually a long put or a put debit spread), and if that doesn't work, we are out at either a small gain or small loss, depending on how much time has elapsed and whether any profit has accrued. I am interested in suggestions for starting out with a smaller allocation, maybe between 2. K. One of the many advantages of the RTT is its scalability. While we generally trade 1. So, if you are concerned about using lower margin requirements, then you might simply try smaller lots and scale all adjustments accordingly. What is the reasoning behind opening with even a small debit? Is that the sacrifice made to get the margin where you want or is there some other advantage?

Is there a down side to opening with a negative debit? Is is going to bite me some day? The rationale for the trade structure of the usual RTT (entered for a debit instead of a credit) is the relative flatness of the T+0, T+7, and T+1. I have certainly done BWBs for a credit in the past, but I found I was hit too often when the market headed south. Also, since the curves slope downward very quickly when the volatility kicks up, it is easy to get underwater quickly. Then, it's harder to "make it back" if the market rallies or stabilizes. Launching the trade for a small debit gives me a little edge at the beginning, and it's really easy later on in the life of the trade to raise up the right side of the curve to lock in the profit.

Then, "bringing in the wing" on the opposite (credit spread side) of the butter will maintain a close approximation of the starting margin while yielding a net credit. Dan Harvey. "I have had more success with the RTT than any other income trade, so I would highly recommend it and your service! Thanks very much, Dan and Tom!!". Joe C. - Haslet, TX. When Dan says a profit target of 1.

Reg T risk or portfolio margin? It's not unusual to make 1. Watch Down Under 4Shared there.